All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (2024)

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening, both across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150558

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO…SOUTHEAST SD…SOUTHERN MN…AND ALSO FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening, both across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains.

Eastern NE/northeast KS into western IA

A weakening or decayed MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from extreme eastern NE into western IA. In the wake of this feature, an outflow-reinforced front will likely begin lifting northward across some part of eastern NE into western IA through the day. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the mid MO Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible.

Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km will be favorable for tornadic supercells, though rather modest flow above 3 km may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime would pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. However, considerable uncertainty remains, both regarding the frontal position during the time of storm initiation, and also the longevity of a more discrete supercell mode. The 5% tornado area has been expanded somewhat to account for the spatial uncertainty.

Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging wind and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central IA and southern MN during the evening.

Northern Great Plains

A rather strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and begin approaching the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen near the MT/WY border during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern MT into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening.

Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern MT into western ND. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized upscale growth. A tornado or two will also be possible, especially if any supercell across western ND can be sustained into the evening, when a notable increase in low-level flow/shear will be possible.

See Also

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Southern High Plains vicinity

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains, and also across the higher terrain of southwest TX. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail.

..Dean/Thornton.. 06/15/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150522

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

Synopsis

On Sunday, an upper trough will move east/northeast across MT and the far northern Plains, becoming negatively tilted as the parent low moves into MB. Meanwhile, a lead wave will move quickly east across the Great Lakes region around the north side of a strong upper ridge. Late in the period, height falls will again increase across the Pacific NW into the Rockies as another trough amplifies there.

At the surface, a nearly stationary front will extend roughly from northeast CO into southern MN, with a weak lee trough from eastern CO into NM. A prominent surface ridge will extend from the high pressure center over the Mid Atlantic southwestward toward the Gulf Coast.

A broad area of southwest winds around 850 mb will maintain a warm low-level air mass south of the stationary front across the Plains and around the upper ridge as warmer air spreads east across the Great Lakes. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass in the vicinity of the stationary front should be the primary focus for scattered storms, some severe, late in the day and overnight from eastern WY toward MN and WI.

WI into MI Early…then WY to WI Late

Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning over WI, in a region of low-level warm advection, and where elevated instability will be substantial. This activity will progress quickly east toward Upper MI and perhaps northern Lower MI, with a general weakening trend. However, marginal hail cannot be ruled out especially early in the day.

Behind this wave of activity, strong instability will develop. However, lift will be quite weak as temporary height rises occur. Still, a weak surface boundary along with peak heating could initiate isolated cells capable of hail from MN into WI during the late afternoon.

More likely, most of the activity will hold off until after 00Z, as elevated instability builds back north. Between 03-06Z, scattered storms will be likely from eastern WY across parts of NE and SD, southern MN, northern WI and into western Upper MI. Vigorous convection will likely produce large hail at times, with favorable mid and high level flow elongating hodographs despite the main wave well north of the region.

Elsewhere, more isolated storms will be possible extending south along the dryline from southwest NE into western KS and far eastern NM. Locally strong gusts and brief hail may occur, but shear will be weak.

..Jewell.. 06/15/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 15

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, June 16

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 5%

Monday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, June 18

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Wednesday, June 19

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Thursday, June 20

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Friday, June 21

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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